As the anticipation builds for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, analysts at Bernstein are highlighting the potential for the event to unleash billions into prediction markets, marking a pivotal moment for digital platforms like Coinbase and Robinhood.
According to Bernstein's latest research, the global excitement surrounding the month-long tournament is expected to generate a staggering $5 billion to $10 billion in consumer prediction market volume, alongside an additional $3 billion in sports betting handle. This surge is anticipated during a time that traditionally sees lower activity in online sports betting.
“The expanded format of 104 matches will likely attract around 6 billion viewers globally, significantly up from 5 billion during the previous World Cup in Qatar,” the report elaborated, signaling a seismic shift in user engagement with prediction markets as matches commence today.
Coinbase, which crossed the $100 million mark in annualized prediction market revenue this past March, is poised to be a major benefactor. The platform's partnership with Kalshi, which enables event contract trading across all 50 U.S. states, has solidified its standing within this burgeoning sector, allowing users to speculate on outcomes in sports and beyond.
In addition to Coinbase's promising trajectory, Robinhood is also leveraging the World Cup to launch Rothera: its very own CFTC-licensed exchange for prediction markets. Bernstein analysts suggest that Robinhood could see as much as $586 million in prediction market revenue this year, emphasizing that this avenue could become a crucial revenue driver for the brokerage.
“We expect prediction markets to be the biggest driver of incremental revenue for Robinhood,” the analysts stated, highlighting the significant fanfare surrounding the tournament and the implications for sports trading in general.
The growing popularity of prediction markets has presented a lifeline for the crypto community, proving to be one of its fastest-growing applications. Despite fluctuations in the broader digital asset market, prediction markets have significantly gained traction, with monthly volumes nearing $26 billion as of April.
A noteworthy change in user behavior has been observed; rather than being limited to events like elections, prediction markets are increasingly retaining users among recurring categories, notably sports, which accounted for over 39% of trading volume in March.
Furthermore, the recent proposal by the CFTC regarding the regulation of prediction markets suggests that contracts tied to sports events may be deemed in the public interest, potentially paving the way for further growth in this sector.
As the World Cup approaches, both Coinbase and Robinhood stand ready to capitalize on a moment poised to redefine the landscape of online prediction markets.
Source: Cointelegraph
More Recommended
Robinhood Shares Plunge as Q1 Earnings Fall Short,...
Visa Expands Stablecoin Settlement Pilot, Surpasse...
